World Cup 2026 winner prediction: who can still win the tournament?
The expanded 48-team format means more upsets, more surprises, and a longer road to the final. With the Round of 32 already delivering penalty drama, here is how the bracket shapes up — favourites, dark horses, and one pick to go all the way.
The clear favourites
Five teams enter the knockout stage as legitimate contenders for the title. All five won their groups, avoided penalty shoot-outs in the opening round, and sit on the more straightforward half of the bracket heading into the Round of 16.
France
France cruised through Group I with a perfect nine points and a +8 goal difference — the best record of any group winner in the tournament. They face Sweden in the Round of 32 on June 30, a winnable match before what looks like an open quarter-final slot. France's squad depth makes them the hardest team to derail over five knockout games.
Brazil
Brazil already have one knockout win banked, beating Japan 2-1 on June 29 to book their Round of 16 place. They were dominant in Group C (7 points, +6 GD) and look capable of going deep. If the bracket opens up on their side, this could be Brazil's tournament.
Argentina
The defending champions — or at least one of the tournament favourites entering the competition — Argentina topped Group J with a perfect nine points and +7 GD. They face Cape Verde on July 3, a match they should win comfortably before turning attention to the Round of 16. Argentina's experience in knockout football is unmatched in this bracket.
England
Group L winners with 7 points, England face DR Congo on July 1. Their +4 GD suggests a solid rather than spectacular group stage, but England's squad quality — particularly in attack — could make them dangerous once the knockout rounds find a rhythm. A favourable draw could carry them to the semi-finals.
Spain
Spain topped Group H with 7 points and face Austria in the Round of 32 on July 2. Their possession-based system has looked well-suited to the tournament's schedule, and if their key creative players stay fit, Spain are built for the long haul of a five-round knockout bracket.
The strongest dark horses
Three teams have already shown they can upset the established order — and all three arrived in the Round of 32 playing for something bigger than a single result.
Morocco
Morocco beat the Netherlands 3-2 on penalties after a 1-1 draw on June 29 — one of the tournament's biggest results so far. They are organised, tactically disciplined, and have recent major-tournament pedigree. If they find the same defensive resilience in the Round of 16, they are capable of reaching the quarter-finals again.
Paraguay
Paraguay knocked out Germany 4-3 on penalties after holding the Group E winners to a 1-1 draw in Boston. Germany were pre-tournament favourites to go deep, so Paraguay's cool composure in the shoot-out was a major statement. They are not a team anyone will want to face in extra time.
Japan
Japan were eliminated 2-1 by Brazil on June 29, but the scoreline was tighter than many expected against one of the tournament's heavyweights. Japan came through Group F as runners-up and gave Brazil plenty of problems — they leave the tournament with their reputation enhanced.
The bracket half to watch
The upper half of the bracket — containing France, Argentina, and Morocco — looks like the more treacherous route to the final. France and Argentina are on a potential collision course in the semi-finals if both navigate the Round of 16 and quarter-finals, and Morocco's penalty-taking ability means no one in that half is safe.
The lower half, by contrast, features England, Spain, Brazil, and Paraguay. On paper, Brazil vs England or Brazil vs Spain in a semi-final would be the standout clash, but Paraguay's upset of Germany shows that assumed paths rarely play out cleanly in this format.
Keep a close eye on the bracket visualiser as results come in — the paths shift quickly.
Our pick
France. Nine points from the group stage, a +8 goal difference, and a squad built for exactly this kind of tournament. They have the depth to handle injuries, the experience to manage tight knockout games, and a manager who has won this before. If France avoid a penalty shoot-out against a team like Morocco or Argentina, they win the tournament. That is the analytical case — not sentiment, not odds — just the team with the fewest weaknesses in the bracket.
If there is a team that can stop them, it is Argentina. The quarter-final or semi-final between those two sides — if it happens — will define this World Cup.
Follow every match
Track the full knockout bracket on the bracket visualiser, check the full schedule for upcoming kickoff times, and see all confirmed Round of 32 results as they come in.